In 2007, during the introduction of the G8 reform, I experienced firsthand in the German Ministry of Education in Hessen what it means to implement far-reaching political decisions. Reducing the duration of upper secondary education from nine to eight years was not just a reform – it was a test of the entire education system. At that time, I learned a crucial lesson: Major transformations don’t happen in stable, predictable environments – they emerge under pressure, with limited resources, and against resistance. This understanding shapes my work to this day.
By 2025, this pattern repeats itself – but with a new dimension. The coalition government under Scholz has crumbled under the pressure of multiple crises. At the same time, Trump took the White House again – with a mandate for protectionism and a geopolitical overhaul. Anyone still hoping for stability is making a fatal mistake. We are not experiencing an anomaly; we are in a new era of permanent volatility. Companies must radically adjust their strategy – or risk being left behind in this ongoing transformation.
Three Realities Decision-Makers Must Understand Now
1. The End of Predictability
Building consensus in fragmented political landscapes was never easy – and Germany is currently facing the culmination of this challenge:
- Traditional parties are losing their unifying power. The political architecture is permanently shifting, and stable majorities are almost impossible to predict.
- The rise of the German right-wing party AfD (Alternative for Germany) forces established parties into repositioning. They oscillate between distancing themselves and aligning.
- Polarization makes political decisions unpredictable. Even moderate reforms face fierce opposition.
At the same time, Trump’s second presidency is fundamentally reshaping global power dynamics:
- "America First" is once again driving economic policy. Trade agreements and international cooperation are under pressure.
- His administration increasingly leans toward economic isolationism. Expert analyses point to a period of intense protectionism.
- Multilateral institutions are under fire. International economic cooperation is increasingly destabilized.
Conclusion: Linear strategy planning belongs to the past. Companies must adopt scenario planning as a core part of their strategic direction to be prepared for political volatility.
2. The Convergence of Technology and Politics
Political influence is no longer limited to parties and governments – it’s increasingly in the hands of tech elites:
- Entrepreneurs like Elon Musk are becoming political players. His public support for right wing parties shows how technology and politics are increasingly merging.
- AI is changing political communication. Algorithmic decision-making systems shape discourse often unnoticed – influencing public opinion more than traditional media.
- Control over data and digital infrastructure is becoming a geopolitical power issue. Governments are vying for technological standards and platforms.
Conclusion: Companies must view "tech politics" as a strategic factor. I recommend integrating this analysis into key decision-making processes.
3. Political Volatility as the New Normal
The frequency and intensity of political upheaval is at an unprecedented level:
- German economic policy is constantly changing. Companies need to adapt more quickly to new frameworks.
- Climate policy is becoming a political battleground. Long-term transformation processes are repeatedly pressured by politics.
- European integration is faltering. Despite ample funding, many projects fail due to bureaucratic hurdles – a pattern repeated at the EU level.
- Global power struggles are shifting to the economic level. Investments and trade relations are increasingly weaponized geopolitically.
Conclusion: Companies do not only need to cope with volatility but leverage it as an opportunity. Building adaptive strategies will become a decisive competitive advantage.
Three Strategic Imperatives I Recommend
After a thorough analysis of political trends and their economic implications, I see three key areas for action:
1. Establish a Political Early Warning System
The sooner you recognize changes, the more room for maneuver you have. An effective early warning system should include:
- Connecting data analysis and expert knowledge – A combination of AI-driven monitoring and targeted political networks provides solid decision-making foundations.
- Mapping regulatory risks – Companies must systematically capture their dependencies on political developments.
- Dynamic stakeholder mapping – Influence structures are changing rapidly, so continuous tracking is crucial.
- Integrating political intelligence into decision-making processes – Geopolitical expertise should be deeply embedded in company leadership.
2. Cultivate Strategic Adaptability
Even the best transformation requires continuous adjustment. In a volatile environment:
- Modular and scenario-based planning – Rigid strategies no longer work. Companies need core strategies that can be flexibly expanded.
- Fast and agile decision-making processes – Complex coordination with many stakeholders takes time, but swift action is essential. Striking this balance becomes a strategic success factor.
- Diversification of supply chains and business models – Companies should intentionally build redundancies in critical areas to remain resilient.
- Regulatory intelligence as a core competence – A deep understanding of political processes is essential today to manage risks and seize opportunities.
3. Develop Resilient Leadership
Effective leadership in uncertain times requires specific skills:
- Strengthening ambiguity tolerance – Leaders must be able to handle contradictory scenarios and think in parallel without falling into simple either/or patterns.
- Identifying weak signals early – Early indicators of political and economic change are crucial to securing competitive advantages.
- Establishing agile resource allocation – Dynamic budgeting and flexible resource utilization enable quick adjustments to changing conditions.
- Embedding geopolitical competence in the leadership team – Political expertise must be an integral part of strategic decision-making processes.
A Conceptual Example from Practice
A mid-sized technology company with an international focus faces the challenge of positioning itself in an increasingly volatile political landscape. As a strategic advisor, I recommend the following steps:
- Vulnerability Analysis – Identifying geopolitical risks in the company’s main markets. Which political developments could impact supply chains, trade, or regulation?
- Political Intelligence System – Developing a tailored monitoring system for political dynamics in Germany, Europe, and other key markets.
- Adaptive Strategy Development – Creating modular strategy options for various scenarios, from regulatory tightening to new market opportunities driven by political change.
- Supply Chain Adjustment – Analyzing existing supply chains for geopolitical vulnerabilities and developing diversified alternative structures.
- Leadership Development – Implementing a program to strengthen geopolitical competence in the management team, enabling fast and informed decision-making.
The Result: A company that does not only cope with political volatility but actively uses it as a competitive advantage.
Political Volatility as a Strategic Competitive Advantage
The German election and Trump’s return are not isolated events but part of a deep geopolitical reordering. Companies that recognize political dynamics early and strategically leverage them will not only become more resilient – they will gain a decisive competitive advantage.
Those who act now will not only survive in this era of uncertainty – they will thrive. My approach to integrating political intelligence into decision-making processes provides a structured method to turn geopolitical turbulence into sustainable success.
One key insight from my experience in the German Ministry of Education and at the Mercator Foundation in a federal context remains highly relevant today: In complex systems, it is not those who hope for stability who win, but those who accept multidimensionality as a strategic opportunity.
The time to act is now.
About Daniela K. Bruse
Daniela K. Bruse advises leaders on the strategic implications of geopolitical developments. From 2014 to 2025, she was the co-founder and managing director of ENVI-met GmbH until its successful sale to One Click LCA. Prior to that, she was Deputy Head of the Education Department at the Mercator Foundation, overseeing major funding projects.
Her career began in government organizations, including as spokesperson for the Deputy Prime Minister of Hesse and at the Federal Employment Agency. With her combination of political insider knowledge, strategic management expertise, and entrepreneurial practice, she helps companies and foundations navigate geopolitical complexity and turn uncertainty into a competitive advantage.
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